What are the causes of C.Africa bloodshed?

With UN and French peacekeepers deployed in the Central African Republic for two years, Thierry Vircoulon of the International Crisis Group blames the country’s latest bloodshed on “an accumulation of errors by the international community”.

The landlocked, impoverished country this week faced a new wave of unrest that killed at least 36 people and forced nearly 30,000 to flee their homes.

The bloodshed, which raised fears of a new wave of inter-religious conflict, was triggered by a murder in Bangui’s Muslim-majority PK-5 neighbourhood, angering Muslims who took revenge on Christians in nearby districts using grenades and guns.

What caused the latest unrest?

“The current flare-up is the result of an accumulation of errors by the international community,” ICG’s Central Africa project director Vircoulon told AFP.

There are several problems with the way the world is dealing with Central Africa, Vircoulon said.

First, there are no plans to disarm militias, giving rise to endemic insecurity. Distrust between communities has not been properly tackled. Local authorities remain ineffective and have failed to garner the trust of Muslims.

“Also, the calendar for disengagement by French forces contradicts with the political calendar of the transition,” the analyst added.

Interim leaders blame armed groups for the unrest. Is this true?

“The current approach to disarming armed groups, formalised by the agreement signed in the Bangui Forum in May last year, underestimates the inter-religious dimension of the violence,” Vircoulon said.

Road maps for Central Africa also fail to take into consideration the fact that the armed groups have become fragmented and increasingly reliant on criminal activity, making it hard to negotiate with them, he added.

Majority Muslim ex-Seleka rebels, who in 2013 overthrew president Francois Bozize, a Christian, have now splintered into a number of different movements.

“They disagree on leadership, financing and strategy vis-a-vis the transitional government and international forces,” Vircoulon said.

Are elections possible this year?

Even though a tense calm has returned to the capital Bangui, the root causes of the violence remain, and the ICG’s Vircoulon does not believe President Catherine Samba Panza will be able to make good on her pledge for speedy elections by the end of the year.

“With international forces unable to retake control of the capital, it is difficult to imagine how elections can be organised between now and the end of 2015,” he told AFP.

“The election process and voting conditions are very problematic,” he says, adding that the key transitional process of disarming and reinserting former combatants into society has not been put into action.

“This will block the elections,” he warned.