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Two-month confinement may bring normality before summer, predicts IST mathematician

Dr Photo - TWO-MONTH CONFINEMENT MAY BRING NORMALITY BEFORE SUMMER, PREDICTS IST MATHEMATICIANPortugal is currently sitting top in the world for the most new cases and new deaths due to Covid-19, but if “the confinement lasts for two months, normality may return as early as May” predicts Henrique Oliveira, mathematician and professor at Instituto Superior Técnico (IST).

The Instituto Superior Técnico presents several scenarios for the outcome of lockdown and they all include the British variant.

According to IST calculations, “a 15-day confinement could result, at the end of March, in a total of 25 thousand deaths. In addition, the National Health Service will be under pressure for 180 days. This means that over six months more than 750 people will be occupying beds in intensive care”.

If it increases to a month, “the number of deaths drops slightly, but the pressure in hospitals remains”.

Big differences would only be noticed if “the confinement was prolonged for at least a month and a half and if an increase was made to the vaccination of the elderly, the use of higher quality masks are used and rapid tests are made more available”, said the mathematician of IST.

Original article available in Portuguese at http://postal.pt/