ECB lifts inflation, growth forecasts as economies reopen

The European Central Bank raised its growth and inflation forecasts Thursday, as vaccinations and fewer coronavirus infections allow businesses to reopen and pent-up demand fuels consumer spending.

The ECB has pledged to “look through” a temporary surge in price growth this year, predicting that inflation will remain below the ECB’s target of just under 2.0 percent.

Here is a table with the ECB’s major projections. The previous forecasts from March are given in brackets.

The figures are expressed as percentage changes, and are all positive unless indicated otherwise.

202120222023

Real GDP growth4.6 (4.0)4.7 (4.1)2.1 (2.1)

Inflation1.9 (1.5)1.5 (1.2)1.4 (1.4)

Private consumption2.9 (3.0)7.0 (5.9)2.0 (2.1)

Government consumption3.4 (2.9)-0.8 (0.1)1.0 (1.1)

Investment7.3 (5.5)5.5 (5.9)2.8 (3.3)

Exports9.0 (7.5)6.5 (5.5)3.7 (3.4)

Imports8.3 (6.6)7.0 (6.4)3.6 (3.6)

Source:

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/projections/html/index.en.html