ECB sees higher inflation and lower growth as Ukraine war rolls on

The European Central Bank on Thursday revised upwards its estimates for inflation and cut its growth forecasts as the war in Ukraine piles pressure on the eurozone economy.

The central bank’s last set of figures, published in the days which followed the Russian invasion, did not account as well for the impact of higher energy prices and extra supply disruptions from the conflict.

Here is a table with the ECB’s major projections. The previous forecasts from March are given in brackets.

The figures are expressed as percentage changes, and are all positive unless indicated otherwise.

202220232024

Real GDP growth2.8 (3.7)2.1 (2.8)2.1 (1.6)

Inflation6.8 (5.1)3.5 (2.1)2.1 (1.9)

Private consumption3.1 (4.6)2.0 (2.6)1.5 (0.9)

Government consumption0.6 (0.1)-0.5 (0.3)1.1 (1.1)

Investment2.8 (3.0)3.1 (3.8)3.4 (2.5)

Exports3.9 (7.8)4.2 (6.3)3.7 (3.1)

Imports4.1 (7.0)3.5 (5.8)3.4 (2.8)