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Obama’s hope in check after Geneva deal

US officials never held out much hope for talks in Geneva aimed at stemming the chaos in eastern Ukraine that Obama had blamed on Russian support for separatist rebels.

But on the face of it, the unexpected agreement between Russia, Ukraine, the EU and United States appeared to address the immediate flashpoints of the latest brushfire in the wider Ukraine crisis.

A closing statement issued in Switzerland said all armed groups must leave government buildings and lay down their arms, and called for a cessation of violence.

Obama had multiple diplomatic and political reasons to be downbeat on the agreement, when he appeared in the White House briefing room shortly afterward.

"I don’t think we can be sure of anything at this point," Obama said.

"The Russians signed on to that statement. And the question now becomes, will in fact they use the influence that they’ve exerted in a disruptive way to restore some order?"

Hopes of a window

Washington hopes for a window to allow the Ukrainian election to take place next month, and to permit Kiev to carry out promised decentralisation reforms that would grant more autonomy to eastern Ukraine, where people lean closer to Russia.

Such a solution has long been seen here as the key to the ultimate defusing of the situation in Ukraine and to placating Kremlin fears the West is trying to pulling the country out of Moscow’s orbit.

Despite calling the deal, partly negotiated by his Secretary of State John Kerry a "glimmer of hope," Obama remains to be convinced he will get the answer from Russia he wants.

"My hope is that we actually do see follow-through over the next several days, but I don’t think, given past performance, that we can count on that."

What Putin wants

US scepticism follows tortuous weeks of divining Putin’s motives and the damaging perception that the West was always one step behind the Russian leader, while he annexed Crimea and set his sights on eastern Ukraine.

US officials have also confided that during past diplomatic efforts to defuse the Ukrainian crisis Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov the Russian representative in Geneva apparently lacked the authority to negotiate for his boss.

The four-way negotiations also followed Putin’s annual tour-de-force phone-in with Russians in which the president expressed hope he would not have to use his "right" to send troops into eastern Ukraine to protect the rights of ethnic Russians.

From Washington, it was unclear whether that was a veiled invasion threat, or an attempt to build political cover for concessions in Geneva.

It was also significant that Obama followed up his assessment of the deal in Geneva with a threat to impose more sanctions on Russia if it is judged not to live up to new commitments.

He spoke to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and agreed that "the United States and Europe are prepared to take further measures if this de-escalation does not occur in short order," according to a White House account of the call.

Obama later spoke to British Prime Minister David Cameron, clearly keen to ensure events in Geneva did not weaken resolve in Europe on sanctions, amid fears in Washington it is already fraying.

The president’s sober response to the deal may also betray a desire to protect his domestic political flank.

Since his decision to abort missile attacks on Syria last year and to accept a deal with Russia on dispensing with the Assad government’s chemical weapons, Obama has been flayed as naive by critics who believe he has been repeatedly played by Putin.

Scepticism over the deal was already evident on Capitol Hill.

"If the Russians want to show they are serious about de-escalation, they’ll leave Crimea," said Brendan Buck, a spokesman for Republican House Speaker John Boehner.

Buck’s comment served to reflect the limited nature of the Geneva accord which would only cover the current flare up and do little to address the Ukrainian territory that most analysts now believe is gone forever.

Republican Senator Marco Rubio, upping criticism of Obama’s diplomacy en route to a possible campaign to succeed him, gave the deal a guarded welcome.

But he warned: "President Putin’s rhetoric earlier today should raise concerns about how serious Russia is about respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty or in resolving this crisis peacefully."

American University Russia expert Anton Fedyashin, however said developments in Geneva were positive.

"I think that all sides have realized that the situation in eastern Ukraine is quickly spinning out of control," he said.

"Sobriety and common sense have finally prevailed and instead of mutual recriminations and talk about sanctions against Russia that a political solution to the immediate acute crisis may have begun."

 

Stephen Collinson / AFP / Expatica