PARIS, Oct 22 (AFP) - The US presidential race is being followed with close attention in France, where an overwhelming preference for a Democrat victory is balanced by the sober recognition that - whatever the result - there will be no quick fix for damaged bilateral ties.

The government of President Jacques Chirac naturally refuses to break protocol by endorsing either candidate, merely stating that it will continue to work with whoever is in the White House on matters of mutual interest.

But following the open rows of the last two years over the war in Iraq - and with a poll showing that nearly 90 percent of the French public wants John Kerry to win on November 2 - it is reasonable to assume that a change at the top would not be regarded unfavourably in Paris.

Nonetheless no-one in official circles is under the illusion that the departure of George W. Bush would spell the end to the tensions between the two countries, and some fear it could even aggravate them.

"Imagine that John Kerry becomes president and asks us to send troops to Iraq. We would say no," a senior French diplomat told Le Monde newspaper.

"It's already proving extremely hard to explain that our refusal is not directed against America. In those circumstances it would be impossible."

Others have pointed out that many of the points of difference between France and the United States - such as the International Criminal Court, trade barriers and the Kyoto protocol on global warming - predate the Bush era and are unlikely to be resolved quickly by a Democrat.

They warn that to expect a return to a 1990s golden age of mutual understanding and goodwill is impossible, given the shift in America's view of itself and the world that was taking place even before the drama of September 11, 2001.

"I do not share the view that the politics of George W. Bush are a temporary aberration," said Pierre Lellouche, a deputy from Chirac's UMP party known for his "Atlanticist" - or pro-US - views.

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