Washington -- American election euphoria, the financial crisis and the Middle East crisis have upstaged the issue of Iran's nuclear activities, a coalition of top think tanks said.

Concern over the threat prompted a coalition of top think tanks -- the Council on Foreign Relations and the Brookings Institution -- to warn last month that Iran poses the biggest challenge for President-elect Barack Obama when he takes office January 20.

The idea that Iran could develop and test its first nuclear weapon as early as 2009 is shared by high profile organizations, including the US-based Institute for Science and International Security, headed by David Albright, and the UN nuclear watchdog in Vienna, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA.)

The American intelligence community, however, believes Iran's ability is at least several years away.

Mohamed ElBaradei, who heads the IAEA, has called American and international efforts to restrain Iran's nuclear ambitions a "failure." But the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize laureate also told the Los Angeles Times recently that he holds out "lots of hope" for Obama because "he is ready to talk to his adversaries."

Tehran has trumpeted the news of its growing mass of enriched uranium and successful test of new rockets. Israel, according to the Jerusalem Post, is prepared for a preventive strike against Iran, even without American support.

But Obama's avowed intentions for Iran could put him on a collision course with Europe – particularly with Germany, who has a robust trade relationship with Iran.

Obama has vowed to "do everything that's required" to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. "We will never take military options off the table," he declared in a presidential campaign debate in October.

Although he has also said he would negotiate directly with the Iranian leadership, his first intention is to use "tough ... direct diplomacy," beginning with harsher sanctions which he wants to be put in place by the West independently of the United Nations.

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