ECB lowers growth, inflation forecasts as headwinds strengthen

The European Central Bank on Thursday lowered its growth and inflation outlook, with the bank’s chief Mario Draghi saying that a “more protracted weakness” of the single currency area is expected ahead.

Economists at the Frankfurt-based institution said economic growth would hit only 1.1 percent this year, rather than the 1.2 percent outlook they offered in March.

They also downgraded the 2020 forecast by 0.2 points, to 1.2 percent.

Inflation was meanwhile seen reaching 1.2 percent in 2019, 1.0 in 2020 and 1.5 percent in 2021 — still far from the ECB target of just below 2.0 percent.

Here is a table with all the ECB’s major projections. The previous forecasts are given in brackets.

The figures are expressed as percentage changes, and are all positive unless indicated otherwise.

201920202021

Real GDP growth1.1 (1.2)1.2 (1.4)1.4 (1.4)

Inflation1.2 (1.3)1.0 (1.4)1.5 (1.6)

Private consumption1.3 (1.4)1.3 (1.4)1.3 (1.3)

Government consumption1.5 (1.4)1.5 (1.4)1.4 (1.4)

Investment3.1 (2.7)1.9 (2.0)2.1 (2.0)

Exports2.3 (2.2)2.4 (2.9)3.0 (3.2)

Imports2.6 (2.7)3.1 (3.2)3.4 (3.4)