Airlines need 30,900 new planes by 2029: Boeing
Airlines will need 30,900 new passenger and freighter jets worth 3.6 trillion dollars by 2029 to meet an increase in global air traffic being led by Asia, US planemaker Boeing forecast Thursday.
Publication of the data comes as the aviation industry prepares for the biennial Farnborough airshow near London due to begin on Monday -- a key industry event where new plane orders are expected to be announced.
"We see a total demand of 30,900 aircraft valued at 3.6 trillion dollars" (2.8 trillion euros) by 2029, Boeing marketing chief Randy Tinseth said in London on delivering the aerospace giant's latest 20-year market outlook.
"The largest market in 2009 is for travel within North America followed closely by the Asia Pacific region," said Tinseth, marketing head of Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
"If we look forward 20 years from now based on our growth rates, clearly the landscape of aviation will change ... The Asia Pacific market will clearly be the largest market in the world followed by traffic within North America then Europe."
Last year Boeing forecast that airlines would need 29,000 new planes worth 3.22 trillion dollars by 2028.
Boeing also estimated on Thursday that the world's fleet would almost double to 36,300 planes in 2029 from 18,890 last year, with the majority of new aircraft being single-aisle carriers.
"Demand in the single aisle market is clearly being driven by the growth of low-cost carriers," said Tinseth, adding that China would probably need 4,000 new planes over the next two decades, most of which would be single-aisle.
Boeing said it expected the world economy to grow by an average of 3.2 percent a year by 2029.
"The world market is doing much better than last year, but there are still challenges," said Tinseth.
He added that by 2029, almost 43 percent of all airline traffic will be to, from or within the Asia-Pacific region, compared with about one third currently.
"The Asia-Pacific region shows the most robust market gains, with China leading the way," said Tinseth.
Boeing said that the Middle East -- one of the fastest growing regions for air travel in recent years -- represents another "very strong market."
"The North American and European markets will see substantial demand for replacement airplanes as they retire aging less-efficient jets," it added.
Boeing said passenger traffic is expected to grow 5.3 percent annually over the 20-year period.
It added that of the 30,900 new planes airlines will need by 2029, 21,160 will be single-aisle carriers, 7,100 will be twin-aisle planes and only 720 will be for the largest kinds of jet.
The remaining 1,920 will be regional jets, or planes carrying the fewest passengers.
Boeing added in its report that European airlines will likely need 7,190 new planes by 2029, with a total value of 800 billion dollars.
Tinseth meanwhile noted that demand for Boeing's fuel-efficient 787 Dreamliner was holding up because oil prices, currently trading at about 75 dollars a barrel, were double the level in 2004 when the plane's programme was launched.
The first deliveries of the Dreamliner, which will be on display in Farnborough, are expected later this year.
"We expect over the long-term (of 20 years) fuel prices to be somewhere between 70 and 90 dollars," said Tinseth.
"Once you get over 90 dollars a barrel, then all of a sudden some of these alternative fuel sources become viable ... bringing the (oil) price back down to 90 dollars."
© 2010 AFP