PVV growing in popularity
5 March 2007, AMSTERDAM – Geert Wilders' Freedom Party is becoming increasingly popular among voters, according to the most recent survey by pollster Maurice de Hond on Sunday.
5 March 2007
AMSTERDAM – Geert Wilders' Freedom Party is becoming increasingly popular among voters, according to the most recent survey by pollster Maurice de Hond on Sunday.
The PVV would secure 15 seats in Parliament if general elections were held today, six more than the nine it currently holds. Voter turnout for the provincial states elections on Wednesday will determine whether the government coalition will secure a majority in the Senate.
The Christian democrat CDA and Labour PvdA both come in six seats down in the survey, though this marked a slight recovery for the CDA, the party of Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende.
The CDA would get 35 seats rather than the 33 it would have gotten last week; it actually holds 41 seats in Parliament. The PvdA would get 27 seats if elections were held today, markedly less than the 33 it actually holds.
These figures are so low that if elections were held today CDA and PvdA would lose the majority they hold in Parliament with the help of ChristenUnie.
De Hond says the outcome of the survey is very different from what can be expected from the elections for the provincial states this week. For one, the PVV will not even be taking part in these elections, so it supporters will have to vote for another party or abstain.
Turnout will be very important. Four in ten Dutch say they will vote, 35 percent say they will definitely not. How much of the remaining 25 percent will show up depends on the weather and the political developments.
If they stay home, the coalition will "almost certainly" secure a majority in the Senate. But if they do vote, there is a "considerably greater" chance that the coalition will miss out. The Provincial States will decide at the end of May on the composition of the Senate.
The turnout for the Provincial States elections came to 47 percent last time, and that is expected to be about the same on Wednesday, says De Hond. The weather could make a difference of 10 percent.
The lower the turnout, the better those parties with an older and better educated following, like the CDA, will fare.
De Hond expects the Socialist SP and the ChristenUnie to be the winners on Wednesday, and the CDA and PvdA the losers. The Liberal VVD will do better than in the general elections, mainly because the PVV is not taking part.
[Copyright Expatica News + ANP 2007]
Subject: Dutch news