'Dutch industrial growth to level off'
The economic desk of ING Bank predicts next year will see a substantial decrease in industrial growth. Industrial businesses will continue to profit from international trade, but the growth in exports will level off.
ING Bank makes its prediction in an overview of the Dutch economy to be published on Wednesday. In particular in the first half of this year, industry benefited from a ‘catch-up effect’, as companies replenished their stocks after the deep recession. And international trade showed strong growth as a result of stimulus measures by national governments.
The effects of these measures have since worn off, which leads ING to conclude that the growth in exports will level off next year. Reduced business investments and consumer spending are expected to spark a reduction in industrial growth from six percent in 2010 to two percent in 2011.
Other sectors strongly dependent on international trade will also see their growth figures level off. The transport sector is expected to grow by 2.4 percent, compared to an increase of 3.5 percent this year. The wholesale trade sector is expected to see estimated growth drop to 2.5 percent compared to four percent in 2010.
In 2011, the retail trade and the hotel and catering sector are expected to finally be able to bid farewell to years of shrinkage. A slow recovery in consumer confidence is to lead to a slight increase in spending. The only sector to witness a continued decline is construction. After an eight percent decrease in 2010, production is expected to fall by a further percent point next year.
ING Bank expects the Dutch economy as a whole will grow by 1.4 percent next year. The bank’s economists expect this year will close on a 1.7 percent growth figure.
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