Balkenende - his fate depends on the Liberals

Ministers Aart Jan de Geus (Social Affairs), Ben Bot (Foreign Affairs) and Agnes van Ardenne (Development Aid) have ruled themselves out from the party's list of MP hopefuls. They are prepared, however, to return to Cabinet.

Karla Peijs (Transport), Cees Veerman (Agriculture) and junior minister Clémence Ross (Sport) are not running for parliament or making themselves available for ministerial positions. Veerman and Ross are leaving politics, while Peijs would like a seat in the Senate.

Last year this could have been interpreted as a sign the rats were deserting a sinking ship. The CDA's poll numbers were in the doldrums and support for the opposition Labour Party (PvdA) was in the high 50s.

Since then an economic recovery has kicked in and the CDA's fortunes has revived. The party expects to do well in the election, and current ministers don't want to attract public disapproval by leaving parliament to get a 'cushy job' in government.

Labour leader Wouter Bos has warned his followers that the election will be a neck-and-neck race with the CDA. The party that wins the highest number of the 150 seats in parliament will get the first shot at forming the next governing coalition.

The CDA is already in bed with the Liberals (VVD) and they plan to continue the marriage after the election. Labour, on the other hand, is without an obvious partner; Bos's choice would be a PvdA-CDA government. Balkenende isn't interested.

A left-wing coalition of the PvdA, Socialist Party (SP) and green-left GroenLinks is unlikely to have the numbers, and the very idea could scare away many of Labour's more conservative supporters.

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