Mary van der Boon discovers that ageing isn't fun, and there’s not a whole lot HR — or anyone else — can do about it.

 “The dominant factor for business in the next two decades – absent war, pestilence, or collision with a comet – is not going to be economics or technology. It will be demographics”.

Peter Drucker (1997)

When asked to name the diversity issue that will ultimately be the world’s top problem, most people would list gender, ethnicity, religion or disability. According to Leon Martel, senior fellow with The Conference Board in New York, they would be wrong. The biggest problem facing our descendants will be under-population.

Dr Martel, author of the recent management bestseller High Performers: How the Best Companies Find and Keep Them told a rapt crowd at the Third European Work-Life and Diversity Conference, held recently in Amsterdam, that the median age of Europeans, now 37.7, would rise to 52.7 years by the year 2050.

Referring to the cyclical nature of market economies, Dr Martel predicted that the ageing workforce issue would become very acute at the next economic upturn, when demand for skilled labour will rise and the growing shortfall will become evident. Higher compensation will be required to attract key employees, resulting in increased inflation.

The consequences of an ageing workforce will be widespread. Globally, the workforce pool will shrink, the percentage of unfilled jobs will rise, competition for the best and brightest will increase, key talent will be lost to competitors and companies may have to rehire retirees.

The problem is not in the distant future, unfortunately. In 2008 the U.S. will need to fill 24 million jobs, and will likely encounter a shortfall of 20 percent, or roughly 4.5 million people to fill those positions.

One way to address this shortfall is to recruit and retain mature workers, something today’s leading companies are already doing. Most mature workers require flexible work arrangements, training possibilities, part-time schedules, reduced responsibilities (they can handle the responsibility, they just don’t want to) and greater attention to health care.

“We will never again see the rate of population rise” said Dr Martel. He gave 1961 as the transition point where birthrates started to drop, and made the disturbing revelation that "our daughters are having few daughters".

Worldwide, he reported, if women are surveyed the majority will say they would prefer to have a boy if they were allowed to select the sex of their future children. This does not auger well for survival of the species, and is a major reason for the declining birth rate.

There is an ill wind that blows no one good, however. One distinct growth industry for the future, according to Dr Martel, will be executive selection firms and headhunters as the fight for talent becomes acute.

Today’s recruitment and headhunting practices will no doubt pale in comparison to the ruthless, no-holds-barred tactics of tomorrow as employees write their own ticket and companies scramble for ever-diminishing resources. A Brave New World indeed.

November 2002

Mary van der Boon is the managing director of global tmc international management training and consulting, www.globaltmc.com