We look at how companies can keep business moving forwards should outbreaks of bird influenza lead to a human flu pandemic.

The reappearance of the bird flu virus has raised serious concerns about the possibility of a human flu pandemic. Over the past six months, outbreaks of avian influenza or bird flu have occurred in six countries outside East Asia. After crossing from China into Russia, outbreaks have been reported in Kazakhstan and have moved southwest to Ukraine, Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria Cypress and Croatia.

"At this moment, it's not clear to what extent this epidemic is under control in Europe and Central Asia," says Juergen Voegele of the World Bank, which has just pledged a grant of USD 4 million to the Kyrgyz to help with avian influenza control and human pandemic preparedness.  "Our message to countries in the region is this: Be prepared.  Don't wait till you have an outbreak to think about drafting contingency plans and putting together a communications strategy," he warns.

The impact of such an outbreak will be almost inexorable on the global economy. According to the World Bank, the economic cost of a Human flu pandemic would be around USD 800 billion (EUR 682 billion) over a year, that is, a drop by two per cent in the World GDP.

Is your organisation ready?

Some inevitable questions for businesses include, "Are businesses ready to face human flu pandemic?", and "What should companies do to prevent shut-down scenarios during human flu pandemic?"

In the midst of the SARS outbreak in 2003, thousands of employees in many countries were asked to go into quarantine. Others avoided travelling, stayed at home, and went out less to eat and shop. Many employees were also not equipped to work from home. Laptops had to be shipped to their homes and internet connections had to be established so that they could do some work.

ORC Worldwide, a premier human resources data and consulting company, conducted a survey in November 2005 and found that less than 10 percent of the 195 companies surveyed had taken action to curtail employee business travel to parts of the world affected by avian influenza.

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