James Drew presents his predictions for what will grab the gongs on the biggest night in the cinematic calendar.

In true Hollywood fashion, it would seem that the strike by the Writer’s Guild of America has ended just in time to save the day, meaning that the 80th Academy Awards ceremony can go ahead with all the usual glitz and glamour on 24th February, rather than be reduced to an hour-long press conference with no stars in attendance, as was the case with the Golden Globes on 13th January.

Just as well, too, because the quality of films, performances writing and direction vying for the Oscars is unusually high. For best picture, Jason Reitman’s teen-angst indie flick Juno goes up against Joe Wright’s Atonement, Joel and Ethan Coen’s No Country for Old Men, Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will be Blood and Tony Gilroy’s Michael Clayton.

Juno’s Ellen Page is joined in the race for best actress by Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age), Julie Christie (Away from Her), Laura Linney (The Savages) and Golden Globe winner Marion Cotillard for her portrayal of French singer Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose.

For best actor, Tommy Lee Jones grabbed a nod for Iraq War film, In the Valley of Elah -  facing off against him will be George Clooney (Michael Clayton), Daniel Day Lewis (There Will be Blood), Golden Globe winner Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street) and Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises).

Of the best picture nods, the only director not being nominated is Joe Wright for Atonement – his place on the podium has been taken by Julian Schnabel, for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Rounding off the ‘Big Five’ nominations (and the only categories in which your correspondent is laying his pundit’s reputation on the line, for damage-limitation reasons, you understand) are the adapted and original screenplay awards – in the former category are Atonement (Christopher Hampton), Away from Her (Sarah Polley), The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Ronald Harwood), No Country for Old Men (Joel and Ethan Coen) and There Will Be Blood (Paul Thomas Anderson). For best original screenplay, Diablo Cody for Juno  
Nancy Oliver’s Lars and the Real Girl, Tony Gilroy’s Michael Clayton (Warner Bros.) Ratatouille by Brad Bird and Tamara Jenkins’ The Savages step into the ring together.

Set-up out of the way – now your man will tell you what’s going to win. It’s been made remarkably easy this year, in fact; if Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will Be Blood doesn’t win in at least three categories, I’m taking my ball home. For a full review of this astonishing film, please click here but for now, rest assured that this is simply among the finest movies made since shadows first flickered on a wall, and that Daniel Day-Lewis's central performance as ambiguous, Machiavellian oil baron Daniel Plainview is devastating – without doubt, a turn that will be talked about for as long as people still talk about cinema.

The more astute reader may have spotted where my predictions are heading but, for the record, here they are:

Best Film: There Will Be Blood. See above.
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf in La Vie En Rose. A startling, snarling, powerhouse pathos performance.
Best Actor: Erm, that would be Daniel Day Lewis in There Will Be Blood, methinks.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson. There Will Be Blood.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Here’s a shock - Paul Thomas Anderson. There Will Be Blood.
Best Original Screenplay: No Country For Old Men, Joel and Ethan Coen.

Fairly frightening to read that list and imagine just how far I might have got it wrong…but God hates a coward, right? With that in mind, I will be laying twenty of my hard-earned on Day-Lewis, always assuming I can find a bookies in Belgium that will take the bet. Wish me luck, eh? Enjoy the Oscars…

For the full list of nominations, go to www.oscar.com/nominees/

James Drew

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(expatica 2008)