It's official, I'm scared this year. It would appear likely (more likely than usual, that is) that Expatica.com editor Paul and Picturenose.com partner Colin will be the recipients of certain monies from your faithful reviewer – the Academy, which will present its awards on 7 March during the customary star-studded ceremony (to be hosted this year by Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin), has this year decided to increase the number of Best Picture nominees from five to ten. Deep, deep joy.

Now, I am obviously not going to present a blow-by-blow account of everyone nominated for every award – a useful link to the full list is available at the end of my predictions. As usual, however, I will be giving you the inside straight on whom I believe will lift Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Screenplay (Adapted and Original), Best Director and of course, Best Picture, with a brief explanation as to my reasons why.

Paul, Colin, that's a total of nine predictions – what say you to paying me if five or more nods go the right way? Think carefully now. Anyway, down to business...

 Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin ready for the Oscar ceremony

Actor in a Leading Role: Morgan Freeman, Invictus
A two-way split – methinks the Academy will be split between Jeff Bridges for his excellent turn in Crazy Heart (and this is his fifth nomination, so 'It's His Turn' sentiments may come into play) or Morgan Freeman as Nelson Mandela in Invictus. It's World Cup year in South Africa, and the role cries out international harmony – I am going with MF.

Actress in a Leading Role: Gabourey Sidibe in Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Carey Mulligan took the BAFTA equivalent for her sterling work in An Education, but I am convinced that Gabourey Sidibe's astonishing performance in Precious will take it. Thinking on, if my Actor and Actress predictions come to pass, that will be the first time in Oscar history that both lead acting awards go to black Americans. Well, it's been a season for firsts, hasn't it? Just ask Obama...

 Gabourey Sidibe aka Precious, based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

Actor in a Supporting Role: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds
Waltz also lifted the BAFTA for his superb performance as Col. Hans Landa (The Jew Hunter) in Tarantino's audacious and amazing revisionist romp and, for me, he should lift the gong stateside, too. Waltz? Razor sharp? Doesn't even come close.

Actress in a Supporting Role: Penélope Cruz in Nine
I am motivated somewhat differently on this one – Penélope Cruz is so astonishingly beautiful, so unbelievably sexy in this radical musical, it's hers for the taking.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay): An Education, Nick Hornby
A beautifully 'English' take on a young girl's journey into womanhood – Hornby deserves it.

Writing (Original Screenplay): The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal
A believable, biting account of men at war, and the price that must be paid – and see below for what else will go this film's way.

 Film Director Quentin Tarantino

Directing: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Now, I am of the opinion that, as was the case with the BAFTA's, James Cameron's giga-smash Avatar, while nominated in many categories, will be snubbed when it comes to the biggies. Sure, it will doubtless lift the awards for SFX and art direction, but I believe it to be Tarantino who will tower, simple as. Best of luck, Quentin.

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker, producers Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier and Greg Shapiro
Without a doubt, the way it's going to go. Not only is the US ready to say, erm, 'Sorry!' about Iraq, but this is also a remarkable combination of guts, grit and emotion from director Kathryn Bigelow and cast.

 The Hurt Locker (2008)

Just remember – you read them all here first. Mocking emails to the usual address, please.

And, for a full list of all the Oscar nominees, click here.

James Drew